000
FXUS65 KGJT 050411
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
911 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012

.AVIATION /FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARD AFTERNOON HIGHS. SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS AT AREA AIRPORTS
RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AS HIGH AS 40
TO 50 PERCENT FOR KASE AND KEGE.

SNOW CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR KDRO AND KPSO AND THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OVER
THE AREA. THEREFORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE AIRPORTS WILL
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED 317 PM MST SAT FEB 4 2012/...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
FOCUS WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD POOL ALOFT HOLDING FIRM AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS AROUND THE REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FINALLY KICK OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ENHANCING LIFT...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. ATTM...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED RESULTING IN
RATHER MEAGER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS ADDED INTO THE EQUATION...WE COULD SEE A
FEW LOCALIZED AREAS PICK UP A FEW INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN
JUANS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. VALLEY SHOWERS CONFINED TO
SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL SPREAD NORTH AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONAL WITH MOS NUMBERS A GOOD START.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT...THE TAIL OF A KICKER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...KICKING THE CLOSED LOW INTO SE CO MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TO
KS-OK ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WILL END
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

IN NW FLOW TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. PASSING
DISTURBANCES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE
CWA WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM....JOE
AVIATION.....NL

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion